Wars… So there is that great risk of course.

RG

And then there’s this. We’re working under two types of restrictions. One is that the data set on which the entirety of our understanding and theories of economics are based starts in the 1940s. It is, therefore, quite possible to state that perhaps it was all an “exceptional period” anyway.

Yes, right, absolutely.

RG

You lived in the era after the generation that witnessed the devastation of those two world wars said “never again.” That generation’s gone now, which is why we’re returning to the trend. That trend is a variety of monarchies and authoritarian regimes. That’s one possibility. Another is this: If you want to take a longer view, the rise of economics as a distinct school of thought emerged after the industrial revolution. And when you consider that, you might say that it’s actually a recent development in human history that everyone has a full stomach, feels capable of achieving something as an individual, and looks forward to the future. We may accept this as the norm and hope to return to it; but it’s only been the norm for the past sixty years. What if it were the exception, not the norm? Which is highly possible, and in this case our starting point is utterly wrong. If the world’s normal condition is one where everyone is fighting everyone else, then every country has an absolute ruler, and those absolute rulers wage wars with one another over territory, plunder etc., and if that’s where we’re going…

There’s one hope there though: We no longer live in a world where wars over territory make sense. We live in a supply chain world where integration proceeds in a vast array of fields in many areas and at many levels; I mean, how realistic is a war for territory between China and America today?

RG

But isn’t it important to voice the reality here? We’re used to analyzing Turkey and the world as fluctuations around a trend. Yet what we take as the trend is only the past 50 or 60 years.

Yes, you’re absolutely right.

BE

Which means our experience has quite a narrow horizon…

Shall we end our conversation here?

Thank you very much for your contribution.


March 22, 2017